Assessment of the Effectiveness of Communication Strategies in Shaping Census Engagement in Nigeria

Abstract

Despite the importance of accurate population data for national planning and development, citizen engagement in Nigeria’s population census remains constrained by public distrust, contested census outcomes, and uneven participation. This study examines the effectiveness of communication strategies in shaping census engagement. Drawing on Communication for Development (C4D) and the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), it conceptualises engagement as a function of awareness, trust, social norms, and participatory communication processes. A qualitative research design was adopted, with data collected through in-depth interviews with adult residents of Alimosho Local Government Area, Lagos State, representing diverse socio-economic, educational, and occupational backgrounds. Data were analysed using theory-informed thematic analysis. Findings reveal that communication strategies are effective in generating awareness but have limited influence on attitudinal and behavioural outcomes, resulting in an awareness–trust–participation gap. Institutional distrust, concerns about transparency, and uncertainty regarding the use of census data emerged as key barriers to participation. In contrast, participatory and community-based communication approaches mediated through trusted local actors were found to foster positive attitudes and greater engagement. The study further demonstrates that census participation is socially embedded, with community norms and peer influence shaping behavioural intentions. Theoretically, the study advances C4D and TPB by identifying institutional trust as a critical mechanism linking communication exposure to participatory behaviour. It recommends that census authorities institutionalise participatory communication mechanisms, enhance transparency throughout the census process, and collaborate with trusted community stakeholders to strengthen credibility and participation. The findings offer valuable insights for improving citizen engagement in large-scale public programmes in developing democracies.